Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
